NATO's War Preparations

Defensive posturing or signs of a broader security conflict on the horizon?

Where the Russia-Ukraine war has brought us

If you ask NATO, war with Russia is coming. And as the Russia-Ukraine war progresses, the original goal of Western nations is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Supporting the conflict through aid and weapons sales to Ukraine was not only done to help them ward off Russia’s advances, but also with the goal of weakening Russia’s military capabilities. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said this himself in April 2022, not long after the war began. As Austin said, a weakened Russia would deter any further invasions or military aggression towards other NATO allies in Eastern Europe. Rather than seeking diplomatic resolutions, where some concessions are made by both parties in the pursuit of peace, Russia continues to advance and the West has sent well over $100 billion in aid. It's safe to say that this will continue. The U.S. has supplied Ukraine with a vast arsenal including air defense systems, air-to-ground missiles, explosive and combat drones, surveillance drones, tanks and armored carriers, artillery, and thousands of ground support vehicles like Humvees and fuel tankers, all in high volume. The Military Industrial Complex is in full swing with the likes of Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Boeing licking their lips at the thought of extended conflict.

Unfortunately, the West did not envisage the systematic overhaul of Russia’s industrial base. Reported casualties in the hundreds of thousands are significant losses for Russia, but they now have arms manufacturing depots and factories running 24/7, around the clock. Some reports have Russia manufacturing seven times as much ammunition as Western arms makers. Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Martin Herem stated in late January of this year that NATO has vastly underestimated Russia’s ability to produce millions of shells and recruit hundreds of thousands of troops at such a speed. Sadly, this was evident before the war even began. In military conflict, population and artillery disparities like the one between Russia and Ukraine are clear indicators of who should control the war. For fighting aged males, Russia outnumbers Ukraine at 4:1 and in artillery the disparity is worse at 5:1. These gaps were always too big to overcome. The State Department knew this, but the opportunity to destabilize Russia’s economy and military infrastructure was too great to pass up; so the U.S. funneled as much aid as they could into Ukraine, and at certain points, particularly after the first counteroffensive in 2022, it seemed that they may by some miracle have a chance. But the statistical realities have come to rear their ugly head and Ukraine’s attempts to regain territory have proven futile.

Russia’s military industrial base is stronger than it has been in decades. With the rise of BRICS, and the increasing frequency at which key commodities like oil are being traded by Russia and its allies in currencies other than USD, the economic outlook for Russia is optimistic.  Considering their ability to overcome Western sanctions so easily, it seems that if anything, Western policies have simply made Russia a stronger nation, and an even more formidable foe than we would have thought possible just a few years ago.

What does this mean for security conflicts going forward? How do NATO allies respond to their miscalculation of Russia’s industrial and military capacity? Again, the concept of reaching out through diplomatic cables has seemingly been lost, with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg urging Capitol Hill to give “what they promised” to Ukraine, by which he means another $60 billion in aid to continue fighting. Meanwhile, NATO allies across Europe have seemingly been given a new directive, as military exercises in preparation for a potential conflict are taking place.

Chairman of the NATO military committee, Rob Bauer, has even said that Western nations must prepare for an “all out war” with Russia as they were “too optimistic” regarding Ukraine’s chances in 2023. That doesn’t exactly sound like a wise thing to say for someone in his position, unless they really believed it to be true. So a larger regional conflict might very well be on the horizon. It’s still important to remember that further conflict between Russia and European states outside of Ukraine is unlikely. Not only has Putin made it clear that Russia has no intention of conflict with Poland or any other NATO ally for that matter, but the logistics of transitioning from the Ukraine war to another offensive against an entirely different nation is unrealistic. Russia’s war machine has been properly oiled through this conflict, but by no means do they have the artillery or manpower to attempt invading a NATO country on the back of this conflict, especially given the implications of Article 5.

NATO allies are not willing to take that chance however, regardless of how improbable it may be. The mobilization of troops in European states is likely just a form of military posturing to remind Russia that aggression towards a sovereign NATO ally is off the cards. However, it could also be legitimate preparation for war, as European leaders fear Donald Trump winning the 2024 election may lead to a relaxed stance on Russian aggression from their American allies. His statements in relation to NATO countries' insufficient defense spending has stoked fears among European leaders. Trump said that he would not protect them and that he would “encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want” as long as NATO members refuse to pay their bills. Trump’s rhetoric is never a good metric to use for understanding U.S. foreign policy agendas, but the combination of these comments and the recognition by NATO members that they have underestimated Russia’s capabilities has led to a large-scale shift in Europe’s security landscape. In order to better understand this shift towards military strength, something Europe has been lacking for many decades, we can take a look at each nation’s recent military exercises and how NATO’s overall security policies have evolved for war.

NATO Preparations for War with Russia

Poland, Germany, France

We can start with a recent announcement from some of NATO’s most powerful European members. Poland, Germany and France vowed to make Europe a military power capable of supporting Ukraine and withstanding Russian aggression. Unlike the early parts of this war when European leaders looked to America to support Ukraine, NATO’S biggest players on the eastern side of the Atlantic seem to be making an independent push to strengthen their security apparatus. The foreign ministers from each of these three nations met in Paris in February to hold talks about Ukraine. They also discussed reviving the Weimar Triangle, a regional alliance formed in 1991 intended to promote cooperation between France, Germany and Poland. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk lamented the fact that Europe’s military power is weaker than that of Russia, claiming that  “increasing production and intensifying our cooperation are indisputable priorities”. Tusk urged European nations to invest more in military projects over the next year, especially in air defense capabilities and upscaling the production of ammunition.

This is significant because in the time between now and the 2024 US presidential election in November, European nations that have put their military industrial bases on the backburner, primarily because the unipolar era allowed them that luxury, are now going to invest heavily in military initiatives. It will presumably be a dramatic increase even in comparison to the defense spending hikes we saw following the initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Poland has long had a sufficient industrial base for arms manufacturing but France and Germany have fallen behind. We can expect a significant bolstering of the arms manufacturing infrastructure and overall military spending of these two European powers during 2024, presumably rising to at least the required 2% of GDP. This is important because nearly half of NATO countries still fall short of the 2% of GDP mark for defense spending, even with the collective calls for increased security measures. This shift will have geopolitical implications not just for the Russo-European relations in the short term but also for Europe moving forward as it attempts to establish itself as a military power in the multipolar world.

One of these Western European powers is preparing for war, but in a much more material way. Leaks from Germany’s Ministry of Defense suggest that Germany has not only envisioned a NATO wide conflict, but that they are actively preparing for such a scenario. Reports revealed their planned “military exercise” which involves a blueprint for deploying troops to eastern Europe following what Germany’s intelligence indicates will be a build-up of Russian troops along the Belarussian border and in the enclave of Kaliningrad, a move which could potentially put pressure on Poland’s border defense. In this scenario NATO would deploy 300,000 troops to the region. The plans include work on communication networks facilitating the transport of energy resources and establishing warehouses for weapons stockpiles. In addition to this, there will be critical infrastructure like road and rail networks installed to streamline transportation routes towards the east.

The Germans are awaiting the results of NATO’s Steadfast Defender 24 exercise, which will be discussed later, before taking action on the project. In a similar vein, Poland’s Defence Secretary also stated that the country’s Defence Ministry has taken concrete steps to prepare for the threat of Russian mobilization, focusing on gaps in armament supplies for their own military, as he expects Poland to play an important role in the common defense of the European Union. Much of this scenario based planning is just part of proper risk management and defensive military posturing, but it nonetheless demonstrates the mindset going into this year for European militaries.

UK, Denmark

To reiterate this shift in Security policy amongst European powers, the recent Munich Security Conference was marked by a somber atmosphere following the death of Alexei Navalny and reports of Russia’s conquest of Avdiivka, their first major territorial gain since May 2023. Defense specialists echoed the concerns of future Russian aggression and the need for revamping Europe’s military capabilities. Denmark’s defense minister went as far as to say that it “can not be ruled out that within a three to five year period Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity.” British military intelligence specialists at the conference also recognised the dangers of large scale conflict in the immediate future indicating a renewed threat assessment of Russia. Whether a war breaks out in the next 5 years or not, security conflicts in eastern europe are here to stay. The animosity and cynicism between Russia and NATO is the worst it's been since the Cold War.  

Romania

Countries closer to the front lines are not just pledging to strengthen defense procedures, they’re already taking action in reinforcing their borders. Romania, who’s geostrategy is particularly vital given their proximity to the Ukraine conflict, signed a letter of intent to buy French submarines last July and have been conducting naval military exercises in the Black Sea over the past year as they attempt to secure their position in the region. The country's Defense Minister Vasile Dincu said that they have managed to defuse 20 mines in their territorial waters which came from the conflict zone between Ukraine and Russia. This kind of hazard has become a regular occurrence for them. The Ukrainian port city of Odessa is only 106 miles from Romania’s port of Sulina, which is where the Danube river meets the Black Sea. Apart from the need to protect the shipping corridor here, Romania’s naval security measures are especially urgent because the Black Sea’s northern waters will likely be controlled by Russia following the end of the conflict, putting them at risk along their Eastern coast. They have also let it be known that they intend to welcome 10,000 US troops to function as a bulwark against Russian aggression. These are the material changes that Romania must make. As a meager military power with little to no air defense systems, the continued inclusion of American troops for military exercises is crucial to their defensive posturing.

Baltic States

As we move north across the continent preparations are heating up even more. While Moldova is the state in most danger following the Ukraine war due to their neutrality and lack of NATO membership, the Baltic States would be a close second. So let’s assess their recent security policy where they try to lay the groundwork for defending themselves against Russia. Again these warnings of further invasions by Russia from European generals and bureaucrats are likely just them projecting fears which have been exacerbated due to recent events, such as Trump’s comments and Russia’s success in Ukraine. They do not reflect the most probable scenarios for European geopolitics moving forward. In reality, defense measures should be taken anyway for security reasons, but leaders stoking fears of Russia invading a NATO ally is excessive at the very least.

Regardless, the war preparations are underway. The battlefield infrastructure is already being prepared by the Baltic states as they are constructing a network of 1,000 concrete bunkers, anti-tank mines, barbed wire, trenches, and dragon’s teeth, which are pyramid shaped anti-tank obstacles made of reinforced concrete. Ammunition depots will also be placed along the borders to defend against Russian threats. The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania announced the project this month (February) along each of their borders with Russia, signifying a concerted effort to collaborate on security issues following deteriorating relations with Russia. The national security project is necessary for deterring Russian aggression and for safeguarding the territorial integrity of their borderlands. Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad makes reinforcements along Lithuania’s southern border a true necessity, on top of the obvious concerns over their eastern border. These proactive measures are perhaps the clearest examples of NATO’s regional security shift and forward defense posture. By strategically placing bunkers along key border crossings, the Baltic states will secure their most vulnerable border locations, placing them in a stronger defense position than Ukraine was leading up to Russia’s invasion.

Sweden and ‘Steadfast Defender 24’

Now to Scandinavia, where accusations of alarmism over statements made by two of Sweden’s top defense officials illustrate the problems with the security based political discourse across Europe at the moment. Both officials emphasized the possibility that “there could be war in Sweden”, leading to criticism from opposition politicians over what they feel is fear mongering rhetoric. Russia did indeed threaten Finland and Sweden after their push to join NATO in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian defense ministry stated that they would be “forced to take retaliatory steps in order to neutralize the threats to its national security that arise from this” which was an ominous warning. Sweden’s announcements most likely stem from a pressing concern to finalize their NATO membership like their neighbor Finland, who officially joined last April. Sweden is only waiting on Hungary’s parliament to ratify their membership which should happen soon despite a puzzling delay on behalf of Victor Orban’s government, allegedly related to Swedish criticisms of his domestic policies. Turkey only recently ratified Sweden’s membership, after Erdogan sought political concessions from them and Finland before accepting their bids to join the alliance, which prolonged the delay. These bureaucratic hold-ups have clearly been a source of anxiety for Swedish security experts, though they should be accepted very soon. 

Swedish defense specialist Oscar Jonsson believes the statements regarding Swedish war preparations simply arose from frustration that not enough was being done from a security perspective. This goes to show that the paranoia of a Russian invasion isn’t just about minimizing risk. It’s a real concern especially around Europe’s most vulnerable nations. Jonsson did say however that although war is unlikely, several converging factors could result in war coming to Sweden. These factors would be; the Russia Ukraine war ending, Russia having enough time to rearm and rebuild its fighting force, and Europe losing US military support, all of which are technically possible in the coming year given recent developments. 

Sweden’s role in war preparations is clear even though they are not yet an official member of NATO. The Swedes have just sent a battalion unit of 600-800 soldiers along with heavy armor to become part of NATO’s “Enhanced Forward Presence” in Latvia. They will form part of the Baltic States’ first line of defense against a potential Russian invasion. They have also been invited to take part in “Steadfast Defender 24” , NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, taking place between January and May 2024. This exercise is the magnum opus, if you will, of the West’s defense posturing so far. It will involve 90,000 troops from each of the 31 NATO members and Sweden. North American troops will cross the Atlantic, move across Europe and conduct exercises in conjunction with European forces. This is a small scale simulation of the mobilization that could take place if a NATO wide war breaks out. 

The first part of Steadfast Defender 24 will entail securing the Atlantic up to the Arctic, then moving troops across Europe from “the High North to Central and Eastern Europe”. The focus on transatlantic reinforcement will involve an exercise in maritime capabilities, including amphibious assault training in the North Atlantic and Arctic seas to prepare for a Russian advancement through the Baltic territories into Scandinavia.  Part two will test multiple domains including air support and the rapid deployment of troops across NATO territories to practice for a potential Russian advancement along the Eastern front. Various exercises conducted by the UK, Poland, Nordic countries, Baltic States and more will prepare NATO infantry and commanders for a number of security challenges in different regions of the continent. Although some exercises are annual or biennial practices of NATO as opposed to brand new initiatives, this is the most comprehensive multilateral military exercise in Europe for decades which underscores the recent discourse surrounding war preparations. Whether some catastrophic event is coming or not, the Europe which was predicated on peace and diplomacy that we have grown accustomed to over the past 70 odd years is gone. Military posturing as of right now isn’t a worry, but a mindset shift amongst European policymakers towards a more militarized status quo, as opposed to a purely economic one, isn't exactly promising for peace.

Even Norwegian and Dutch generals have urged their countries to “prepare for war” with the Chief of Norway’s armed forces saying we have “perhaps three” years to stockpile weapons and increase spending. So the timeline for a future conflict seems to be roughly understood by defense specialists around Europe. The fear is that this conflict is being spoken into existence, with the arms race and military posturing leading to an eventual boiling point. And for the most part, this is just the natural life cycle of a fractured relationship in international relations, especially with security conflicts. Diplomatic cables are less and less useful, economic intercourse falls by the wayside, and states begin to act purely out of their own self interest of survival, as opposed to trusting a peace process which may require concessions that they feel could jeopardize their future security. This is why, from a historical perspective, war can sometimes look like an inevitability or a self-fulfilling prophecy when you look at the precipitating events in the years leading up to large scale conflict. Especially when states feel that their national security is threatened, as Russia felt before the Ukraine war and now NATO countries feel today. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said this month that the West is doing more from a security perspective because Russia has geared its entire economy for war, and a long war at that. So, is the West reacting to Russia’s changing military industrial complex? Is Russia reacting to what they see as a unified threat from the west? It doesn’t really matter anymore. The result is heightened tensions and military exercises around the continent for the next couple years at least. Scandinavia, the Baltic states and the Balkans should see the most dramatic changes as they remain the vulnerable regions within the NATO alliance. 

More sanctions and a fracturing geopolitical landscape

Outside of these war preparations on the ground, economic and diplomatic trends point towards a more hardline approach from the West against Russia and its allies. The United States this week announced new sanctions on Iran and Russia, even though the last round of sanctions only hurt the dollars standing in the global economy. They are also preparing sanctions on China, after the EU agreed for the first time to blacklist several Chinese companies suspected of supplying Russia with military technology, including microelectronics for missile and drone guidance systems. Whereas previously the EU was hesitant to take the hard anti-China stance that the State Department has adopted for some years, the desire to cut Russia’s war economy off at the knees has led to this change. The fracturing of global politics into a West vs Rest dynamic seems to be irreversible at the moment. EU blacklisted companies include firms from Turkey, Kazakhstan, China, North Korea and India amounting to a total of nearly 2,000 companies.

The more united the West is when it comes to sanctioning foreign entities for their trade and military support of Russia, the more this supposedly imminent NATO-Russia conflict should be viewed through a broader lens. The West vs an alliance of Eastern powers. This doesn’t mean every nation is necessarily involved in kinetic warfare, but rather that a NATO vs Russia war could serve as a larger proxy war for Eastern regional powers like Iran, India, and China to advance the BRICS philosophy of combatting Western hegemony. China and India’s trade with Russia will not end if a NATO wide war breaks out. India has already shown that they care more about maintaining strong trade partnerships and economic relations than imposing sanctions on the West’s enemies. So as our European leaders encourage us to prepare for war with Russia sometime this decade, keep in mind that the recent economic and geostrategic policies of the Western and Eastern powers indicate a more systemic fracturing of the global political system, and that means a regional war may just be the tip of the iceberg.